Two Value Bets to Win Super Bowl LIX
As we approach another thrilling NFL season, the anticipation for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans is already heating up for next February. Ahead of the new campaign, the Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favored to become history-makers by becoming the first team to lift the Lombardi in three straight seasons. And who can doubt them after their showings in last year’s playoffs?
Heading into the postseason, the Arrowhead outfit found themselves in an unusual position as outsiders. They lost five of their final ten regular season contests and would have to go on the road in two of their three postseason matchups. But ultimately, that wouldn’t stop them, with their defensive heroics securing victories against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, and punching their ticket to a date at the Big Game with the San Francisco 49ers.
The contest, of course, would end in victory as well, with Patrick Mahomes’ touchdown deep into overtime good enough to secure the Lombardi for the second straight season and third time in five seasons. The latest NFL Spreads at Bovada make them a -145 to win their 2024 season curtain-raiser against the Ravens, as well as a +425 favorite for the Lombardi.
But with their odds of victory so short, that means that there is plenty of value among the rest of the field. Here are two teams that we think have longer odds than they should have ahead of the upcoming NFL season.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have been on an upward trajectory since drafting quarterback Joe Burrow with the first overall pick in the 2020 Draft. The former Heisman winner has quickly established himself as one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, leading the Bengals to a first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years in just his second season as a starter, before a trip to a second straight AFC Championship game the following campaign. Last term was perhaps his most disappointing since making the step up from the LSU Tigers, and a season-ending wrist injury curtailed his side’s hopes of reaching the playoffs for the third straight season.
This year, however, Burrow’s back, fully fit, and firing on all cylinders. That should spell danger for Mahomes and the Chiefs. In the four games that those two have started opposite each other, it’s been Jackpot Joey and Cincy that have emerged victorious on three occasions. They will be hoping to make it four from five on game week two.
But it isn’t just Burrow that the rest of the league should fear. The wide receiving corps of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is perhaps the most powerful in the AFC, while a solid defense containing Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard should also be feared. As such then, their odds of +1500 to lift the Lombardi for the first time in franchise history are certainly eye-catching.
The Bengals are a team with proven playoff success and the potential to go all the way if their main assets can stay healthy. There is particular importance on the offensive line, who must do a better job of protecting Burrow than in previous seasons. Additionally, the defense needs to maintain consistency, particularly in the secondary, to handle high-powered offenses in the playoffs. If they can do that, then they may well have every facet required to topple the Chiefs and head to the Big Game once more.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have flirted with Super Bowl contention for several years now, but the Chiefs have proven to be a continual stumbling block. KC has eliminated them from the playoffs in three of the last four campaigns, including in the Divisional Round last term on home turf at Highmark. Similar to the Bengals, their fortunes were transformed when they brought in a new quarterback, namely former University of Wyoming star Josh Allen, but he is yet to get the best of Mahomes when the chips are down.
Despite falling short in recent postseasons, the New York state outfit has consistently been in the mix and possesses one of the most balanced rosters in the AFC. Sean McDermott’s disciplined coaching style and a roster full of playmakers on both sides of the ball make his side a perpetual threat. Allen is the jewel in the crown, however, with his dual-threat ability keeping defenses guessing. That opens up opportunities for big plays, mainly through the wide receiver and primary target Stefon Diggs, who was seventh in the league for receiving yards last term.
Additionally, the defense, anchored by DaQuan Jones and Von Miller, is stout and built to handle diverse offensive schemes. With a few key additions and a renewed focus, the Bills could finally break through the AFC and secure a first trip to the Super Bowl in three decades. In the early ‘90s, Buffalo reached four straight Super Bowls, still the only team in history to achieve that feat. They inexplicably lost all four, and this year they are a +1600 contender to right those wrongs.
