Super Bowl LVIII picks: Will Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers lift Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas?

• WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
• WHEN: 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+, Univision, NFL+
• MONEYLINE: 49ers -130 | Chiefs +110
• SPREAD: 49ers -2.0 | O/U: 47.5

*Lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Feb. 8.

OVERALL TRENDS

• Average score prediction for the Chiefs: 26.3
• Average score prediction for the 49ers: 23.9
• Average total points scored: 50.2

Michael Baca: Chiefs 31, 49ers 27

• Why: Patrick Mahomes picks apart San Francisco’s secondary — the soft spot of the 49ers’ great defense — with three touchdown passes, as Kansas City secures an early lead and never looks back.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Marquez Valdes-Scantling nabs an unbelievable touchdown grab that not only washes away his rough season but makes one wonder how he could’ve dropped any easy passes in the first place.

Judy Battista: Chiefs 21, 49ers 17

• Why: Steve Spagnuolo will weave another defensive masterpiece to limit all those 49ers weapons, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will make just enough plays to win their third Lombardi.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Someone other than Mahomes will throw a touchdown pass for the Chiefs.

Ali Bhanpuri: Chiefs 24, 49ers 23

• Why: Don’t. Pick. Against. Pat. (… Unless he’s playing Brady.) It’s a simple rule that has served me well over the years. Not about to adopt a new strategy now, not even against a loaded 49ers team boasting two MVP finalists. Chiefs complete their back-to-back bid — but just barely.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Isiah Pacheco.
• Bold prediction: Although No. 15 flaunts his familiar wizardry late in the fourth quarter, it’s Pacheco (aka AD 2.0) who fuels the Chiefs’ offense for most of Sunday. The second-year back rips off at least three rushes of 15-plus yards and finds the end zone twice.

Tom Blair: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

• Why: The Chiefs’ defense clamps down, and Patrick Mahomes gives K.C. the edge in the end. Also, if my midseason pick (when I switched to Eagles over Dolphins) taught me anything, it was to stick with my preseason pick (Chiefs over 49ers).
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Rashee Rice breaks Torry Holt’s record for receiving yards by a rookie in a Super Bowl (109).

Brooke Cersosimo: Chiefs 27, 49ers 25

• Why: My heart and my head want different things, but it’s hard not to go with the logical choice: Patrick Mahomes. The 49ers can’t give Mahomes any time left on the clock (SEE: the Grim Reaper Game), but they do. The best player of his generation, bar none, takes the Chiefs down the field for a Harrison Butker walk-off field goal.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Mahomes has a touchdown throw, run and catch.

Jeffri Chadiha: Chiefs 23, 49ers 21

• Why: The Chiefs’ defense contains the 49ers’ explosive offense, while Patrick Mahomes makes just enough plays to turn his team into a dynasty.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Isiah Pacheco.
• Bold prediction: Mahomes throws for fewer than 200 yards in a Super Bowl win for the second straight year.

Chase Daniel: Chiefs 34, 49ers 28

• Why: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are the G.O.A.T.s.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Brock Purdy throws for 325-plus yards and three touchdowns.

Eric Edholm: Chiefs 24, 49ers 18

• Why: I’m not picking against Patrick Mahomes. Maybe that will prove shortsighted against a talented 49ers team. But Mahomes has played such clean football during these playoffs — cleaner than Brock Purdy has — and the Chiefs’ defense has been so strong and timely, a K.C. win seems the most likely path for the game script to take. The Chiefs should be able to run the ball effectively, and Mahomes can take his shots when needed.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Isiah Pacheco.
• Bold prediction: Purdy throws two INTs, including one to Super Bowl LVII hero Nick Bolton.

Gennaro Filice: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

• Why: Having given up 318 rushing yards at a robust 5.6 a pop over two postseason games, San Francisco’s run defense remains highly suspect. And these Chiefs aren’t the weekly laser light show of yore; they’re happy to take whichever avenue offers the best path to victory, even if that entails more of a ground-based approach on offense.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Wait, didn’t I just spin a tale of Kansas City winning on the ground? Why is Mahomes the projected MVP? Because that’s life in a quarterback league. Just like Damien Williams four years ago, Isiah Pacheco will provide MVP-worthy returns in a Super Bowl triumph over the 49ers … only to watch the Chiefs’ megastar QB get the Disney shine.

Christian Gonzales: Chiefs 34, 49ers 27

• Why: Steve Spagnuolo’s defense forces a 49ers turnover on a potential game-tying drive in the final minutes, securing the Chiefs’ third Super Bowl title in five years.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Mahomes delivers his best Super Bowl performance yet by throwing for 300-plus yards and four touchdowns while also contributing 50 rushing yards.

Grant Gordon: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

• Why: The magnificence of Patrick Mahomes once more propels the Chiefs — now a full-fledged dynasty — to Lombardi glory. Christian McCaffrey, in his first Super Bowl, performs spiritedly, but K.C. rallies past San Francisco in the fourth quarter to pull off the repeat.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Mahomes throws for more than 300 yards, but his legs carry him to a game-winning touchdown run.

Dan Hanzus: Chiefs 27, 49ers 19

• Why: I have walked the road of the fool and picked against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Now I choose the path of the righteous.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Mahomes snags yet another Super Bowl MVP, but it is Steve Spagnuolo’s defense that makes the most memorable plays in Kansas City’s latest championship conquest.

Anthony Holzman-Escareno: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

• Why: No. 15. The Chiefs have the best player on the planet.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Mahomes executes another comeback of seven-plus points, as the Chiefs become the first back-to-back champions since the 2003-04 Patriots. With the win, Mahomes’ career playoff record improves to 9-2 in such situations (.818 win pct). For context, no other QB with at least 10+ playoff starts has a win percentage above .500 when trailing by seven or more points (Tom Brady is second at 10-11, .476).

Maurice Jones-Drew: Chiefs 28, 49ers 24

• Why: While the Chiefs’ defense and offensive supporting cast play instrumental roles Sunday, Patrick Mahomes once again works his on-field magic to win the franchise its third Lombardi in the past five years and further cement his legacy as one of the NFL’s greatest.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Rashee Rice has a career performance with 140 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Bobby Kownack: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

• Why: The Chiefs were in their most imperfect form of the Patrick Mahomes era this regular season, but they’ve controlled each of their playoff games against three AFC heavyweights. Despite the 49ers possessing more firepower, picking against Kansas City at this point is an act of folly.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Travis Kelce scores all three of the Chiefs’ touchdowns to tie Jerry Rice’s NFL record for postseason receiving TDs (22).

Shaun O’Hara: Chiefs 34, 49ers 31

• Why: These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, so I’m predicting this star-filled showdown to be a high-scoring affair. As much as I like Brock Purdy, if the Chiefs are able to keep him in the pocket, it could mean trouble for the Niners. Plus, history tells us to not pick against Patrick Mahomes.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Travis Kelce.
• Bold prediction: Kelce has a touchdown pass.

Dan Parr: Chiefs 30, 49ers 21

• Why: I hate to turn against the 49ers, my pick to win it all since the preseason, but the Chiefs are the more complete team right now. The squad with the better quarterback and better defense usually wins.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: While MVP honors go to Mahomes for his three TD passes, the Chiefs QB tells CBS’ Jim Nantz on the postgame platform that he thinks Isiah Pacheco should have won the hardware after thrashing the 49ers for a career-high 140 rushing yards.

Kevin Patra: Chiefs 24, 49ers 21

• Why: Patrick Mahomes.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Chris Jones sacks Brock Purdy three times and adds two more tackles for loss.

Adam Rank: Chiefs 34, 49ers 23

• Why: I love the way this Chiefs team has battled through adversity. When the 49ers fall behind on Sunday — like they have multiple times this postseason — it will be Kansas City’s defense that seals the victory.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Isiah Pacheco makes a bid for game MVP with 119 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Chad Reuter: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

• Why: The Chiefs are hitting their stride at the right time, with the offense coming alive to support a defensive unit that’s been dominant all season long. Kansas City will force at least two turnovers and make Brock Purdy and Co. settle for field goals instead of touchdowns en route to the franchise’s third championship in five seasons.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Sam Darnold relieves an injured Brock Purdy in the second half, leading the 49ers to a game-tying score in the final quarter. But Darnold’s heroics are short-lived, as the backup QB watches from the sideline as Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker nails the winning field goal as time expires.

Gregg Rosenthal: Chiefs 27, 49ers 20

• Why: If you only watched the playoffs, the 49ers’ defense is easily the worst unit in this game. And Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Isiah Pacheco.
• Bold prediction: Pacheco breaks 200 scrimmage yards.

Marc Ross: Chiefs 21, 49ers 17

• Why: Patrick Mahomes will make enough plays on offense, but Big Game Spags and the Chiefs’ D lead the way with another dominant performance.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Chris Jones.
• Bold prediction: Jones will be the first defender to win MVP since Von Miller in Super Bowl 50, matching Miller’s 2.5 sacks and producing a forced fumble.

Nick Shook: Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

• Why: After a season of struggles, the Chiefs’ offense has finally given us enough proof to believe it can get the job done. And I trust Kansas City’s defense to limit San Francisco enough to bring another title home.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Patrick Mahomes.
• Bold prediction: Isiah Pacheco channels his inner Damien Williams, scoring two touchdowns — including a fourth-quarter score — to give the Chiefs another Super Bowl triumph.

Brendan Walker: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

• Why: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s combined experience competing in the biggest game of the year ultimately gives Kansas City the edge and solidifies the Chiefs as a dynasty.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Chris Jones.
• Bold prediction: Isiah Pacheco will outperform Christian McCaffrey on Super Bowl Sunday, stomping his way to more total yards and touchdowns than the 49ers’ All-Pro back.

Mike Band: 49ers 31, Chiefs 24

• Why: The 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey to an early lead, tipping the game script in their favor. The Chiefs’ lack of explosive plays limits their ability to make a second-half comeback.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Christian McCaffrey.
• Bold prediction: McCaffrey accumulates more than 200 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on his way to Super Bowl MVP.

David Carr: 49ers 28, Chiefs 27

• Why: This is a back-and-forth affair with Brock Purdy orchestrating a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Christian McCaffrey.
• Bold prediction: Patrick Mahomes throws for more than 400 yards but loses the game — the most since Tom Brady threw for 505 yards and lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII.

Marcas Grant: 49ers 24, Chiefs 20

• Why: On top of its massive talent crop, Kyle Shanahan’s team has learned how to win in the face of adversity this postseason. The final hurdle is for coach and team to get over the Super Bowl hump.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Brock Purdy.
• Bold prediction: Purdy accounts for three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing).

Matt Okada: 49ers 31, Chiefs 20

• Why: The one, singular way to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is to sack him — he was sacked at least three times in all three of his previous postseason losses. Nick Bosa and Co. will keep Mahomes down long enough for the explosive 49ers offense to build a lead and eventually seal a Super Bowl LIV-avenging win.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Nick Bosa.
• Bold prediction: Staying on theme, the 49ers’ defense plays with the kind of fire we saw in the second half of the NFC Championship Game and forces Mahomes into three-plus sacks and three-plus turnovers — something he did only once this year, in the 24-9 loss to the Broncos.

Marc Sessler: 49ers 28, Chiefs 24

• Why: I’ll pull from my September prediction: Kyle Shanahan’s winding quest to lift the Lombardi crescendos on a February night in Las Vegas, as Brock Purdy tilts Kansas City’s defense for three scores and 400-plus yards. The play of the game, though, is San Francisco’s 77-yard pick-six of Patrick Mahomes that seals the deal with seconds to go in the final frame.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Brock Purdy.
• Bold prediction: Travis Kelce retires within 48 hours after the Chiefs fizzle out.

Brenna White: 49ers 21, Chiefs 17

• Why: Although the 49ers have shown their flaws in their first two postseason games, they are more balanced on both sides of the ball than the Chiefs.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Brock Purdy.
• Bold prediction: Kyle Juszczyk will have 50-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. After the Niners win, his wife, Kristin Juszczyk, will show off her custom Super Bowl victory outfit.

Lance Zierlein: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24

• Why: The additional week of preparation serves as a big advantage for San Francisco, as it could cool down a hot Chiefs team and give more time for Deebo Samuel to heal. I see this being a close one, with the 49ers’ pass rush becoming a major factor late in the game. Kyle Shanahan shakes off past Super Bowl losses and finally gets his ring.
• Super Bowl LVIII MVP: Christian McCaffrey.
• Bold prediction: Nick Bosa will finish with three sacks and be in the running for game MVP.