The New England Patriots enter the 2024 NFL season facing low expectations as they embark on a new era without Bill Belichick at the helm for the first time in 24 years. With Jerod Mayo taking over as head coach and rookie Drake Maye expected to be the starting quarterback, the Patriots are projected to struggle in 2024 as they rebuild.
Bookmakers Not Bullish on Patriots
Sports betting has become a significant part of the NFL’s business. Frank from Crypto Betting Limited says that crypto sports betting sites offer security, anonymity, and fast transactions, allowing you to bet using crypto on the Patriots with ease from anywhere in the US. Now, most bookmakers have set the Patriots’ season win total at just 5.5, with -140 odds on the under and +115 on the over. This reflects the lack of optimism surrounding the team, as evidenced by their long odds to win the AFC East (+1800), AFC Championship (+8000), and Super Bowl (+15000). With a huge following of dedicated fans, many will be rooting for and wagering on this team regardless.
Experts Predict Rebuilding Year
Most experts are projecting a rebuilding year for the Patriots in 2024, with predictions ranging from 3-14 to 9-8. However, the consensus seems to be around 5-7 wins, as the team adjusts to a new coaching staff, general manager, and rookie quarterback. NFL.com projects the Patriots to win 5.3 games, while CBS Sports and Pats Pulpit both have them at 5-12. Patriots Wire is slightly more optimistic with a 7-10 prediction, but notes it will take time for Maye and the offense to get up to speed
Tough Schedule Adds to Challenges
The Patriots’ 2024 schedule is widely considered one of the toughest in the NFL. Nearly half of their opponents reached the playoffs last season, and they have to wait until Week 14 for their bye week (December 2024). The Patriots are currently betting underdogs in all 17 of their regular-season games. They also only have one primetime game on their schedule, a clear sign that expectations are low for the six-time Super Bowl champions.
Game-by-Game Predictions
Week 1 vs Bengals: Loss
The Patriots are predicted to lose to the Bengals in Week 1 due to Cincinnati’s talented receiving corps led by Tee Higgins, who was franchise-tagged. Higgins is a red-zone threat that will challenge the Patriots’ secondary, which is still gelling with new pieces. The Bengals also have a strong offensive line and passing attack that should give the Patriots’ defense problems early in the season.
Week 2 vs Seahawks: Loss
The Patriots are expected to drop their home opener against the Seahawks in Week 2.
Seattle has a dangerous passing attack with Geno Smith throwing to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks also added rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who averaged a deep 10.4 yards per target in 2023. He will be a tough cover. The Patriots’ secondary will be tested again after facing the Bengals’ receivers in Week 1.
Week 3 at Jets: Loss
The Patriots are predicted to lose to the Jets in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. This matchup features the storyline of Aaron Rodgers’ Jets debut against the Patriots’ rookie QB Drake Maye. The Jets have a talented roster with Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and a strong defense. They should be favored at home. The Patriots’ offense may still be finding its footing with a new QB and coaching staff, making it tough to keep up with the Jets.
Week 13 vs Colts: Win
The Patriots are projected to get their first win of the season against the Colts in Week 13. The Colts are in rebuild mode with a new coaching staff and QB Anthony Richardson. The Patriots’ defense should be able to take advantage of a young Colts offense and get some takeaways. At home, the Patriots will be favored against the rebuilding Colts.
Week 15 vs Cardinals: Win
The Patriots are predicted to win their Week 15 matchup against the Cardinals after their Week 14 bye. The bye week will give the Patriots extra time to prepare and get healthy. The Cardinals are a rebuilding team with a new coaching staff and QB. The Patriots should be favored at home. This game comes after the Patriots’ tough divisional matchups against the Bills and Jets. A win here could provide some momentum.
Weeks 16 & 18 vs Bills: Losses
The Patriots are projected to lose both of their matchups against the Bills in Weeks 16 and 18. Josh Allen and the Bills’ passing attack will be a major challenge for the Patriots’ secondary. The Bills have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL and should be favored in both games. These divisional matchups will be crucial for the Patriots’ playoff hopes, but the Bills are the favorites in the AFC East.
Reasons for Optimism
Despite the low expectations, there are some reasons for optimism surrounding the Patriots in 2024:
- The Patriots’ secondary has versatile options like Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones, who can match up with different offensive threats.
- Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has been putting in long hours watching film and working on his fundamentals.
- The Patriots’ defense could keep them in games, with Christian Gonzalez helping to be an equalizer against talented offenses.
Conclusion
The New England Patriots face a significant challenge in 2024 as they navigate the post-Bill Belichick era. With low expectations from bookmakers and experts alike, the team will need to overcome a tough schedule to find success this season. However, there are reasons for cautious optimism, particularly on the defensive side of the ball and with the potential development of rookie quarterback Drake Maye. If the Patriots can stay competitive and show signs of progress, it could lay the foundation for a return to contention in the coming years.