One of the big talking points about the new NFL season is the introduction of the Dynamic Kickoff rule. While it is getting a good test run during pre-season, no one knows what its full impact on the regular season will be.
Forecasting plans for the new NFL season on who will win divisions, conferences and of course the Super Bowl are already shaping up. The latest NFL football odds, not to be confused with football predictions for soccer matches from around the world, paint a rough picture of what is expected to shake out for the campaign.
But any time a new law comes along in the NFL, it adds an extra nuanced layer of unpredictability. So what is the new Dynamic kickoff rule and what could it mean for the season?
Significant Change
The new kickoff rule is a significant change. There’s an average of around 10 kicks per NFL match, but because of so many safety regulations creeping into the game surrounding the kickoff, it reached the point where it was almost a dead play. It became just a perfunctory act to get the game underway or restarted and the new changes are designed to breathe new life into the play.
NFL owners approved the new kickoff rules 29-3 with the Packers, 49ers and Raiders going against it. The rule comes in temporarily for a season. If there is not a significant uptick in kickoff returns, then it may get scrapped.
As we can see, not all NFL teams were in favor of this new rule. This situation can be compared to when new regulations are introduced in soccer. Even top teams might oppose a new rule, believing that it could affect their strength rate — an important metric on analytical platforms like ClubSport. Yet, it’s rare for new rules to be reversed once implemented, and teams usually have to adapt to the changes.
The New Rules
The kicking team will still launch the ball from the 35-yard line. But the new changes mean that their teammates won’t be starting their charge from the kicker’s flanks. They will already be up on the opponents’ 40-yard line with five players on each side of the ball.
That takes away the running head start that a receiver would get. With the new rules, the receiving team can have one or two returners waiting in the backfield to capture the ball. The rest of the defending team will be positioned further up the field between the 30 and 35-yard line.
Aside from the kicker and returners, no one else becomes active until the ball either hits the playing surface, or a returner touches it. In other major changes to the kickoff rules, a returner can still call a fair catch, but play resumes from where it’s called, and onside kicks have to be announced so they are no longer a surprise.
What About the Touchback?
The Touchback, when a receiver collects the kickoff in their end zone, or when the kick sails over it, still features. The receiving team now just gets the ball on the 30-yard line instead of the 25-yard line in a small tweak. Last season, around 75% of kicks ended in a Touchback, and the new rules encourage players to actively return.
The best scenario now for the kicking team is to have the ball hit the ground inside the landing zone and then bounce through to the end zone, as in that scenario, the receiving team only starts at their 20-yard line.
What Impact Could It Have
Special team coaches have had to work this out during pre-season and will still probably adjust on the fly. Coverage players can’t react until the ball is touched or hits the ground, and big blockers are going to be positioned well ahead of the runners.
So specialist return players, players built for pure speed to handle the counter-attacking in what will look and feel like a traditional running play, are going to be incorporated more. They will be used to exploit mid-field holes that blockers create.
Some teams may even flirt with having a defensive player kick off instead of a regular kicker, just for extra defensive coverage, due to a concern that kickers will be targeted by teams in the rush.
Because there’s no hang time any more, the new equivalent is having the ball grounded, so teams could mess with grubber kicks to mess the game up and cut down the risk of return.
