Head-to-Head: Who has the edge in the Western Semi-Final?
By Marshall Ferguson
On the Week 21 broadcast of Winnipeg relying on the Montreal wind to clinch top spot in the West Division, I mentioned that looking at season-long statistics as a way to qualify any major team-wide argument can be a faulty process thanks to many teams across the CFL having what has felt like three distinctly different seasons over the past six months.
Perhaps nowhere is that sentiment more true than with BC and Saskatchewan where the Lions went through their quarterback eras while the Riders rollercoaster began 5–1, then went 0-6, and closed out the year 4-1.
2024 CFL PLAYOFFS
» Matchups Set: Semi-Final Saturday heads to Toronto and Saskatchewan
» Double Double: McInnis, Oliveira make history as league leaders
Saskatchewan is hosting its first playoff game since 2021 and by some strange twist of fate in a nine team league the last time BC and Saskatchewan met in the playoffs was all the way back in the 2013 Western Semi-Final with Saskatchewan claiming a 29-25 victory.
Over a decade later they get set to duel for a spot in the Western Final. Here’s a positional breakdown to get you set.
QUARTERBACKS
Can Vernon Adams Jr. win his second Western Semi-Final in a row? (Minas Panagiotakis/CFL.ca)
There’s so much to dig through here. Obviously BC’s quarterback dynamic paints the picture as a whole with Vernon Adams Jr. stepping in for Nathan Rourke just before the playoffs begin. VA is likely taking back the starting spot he dominated in over the first half of the year and with a more complete bill of health.
Trevor Harris missed time again this season with injury and since returning has been quintessential Trevor with accuracy and high completion percentage. These two went head-to-head when Harris and his then club Edmonton crossed over into Montreal to take on Alouettes’ starter VA five years ago. In that game, Vernon had two bad interceptions and lost, but he’s come a long way since those days while Trevor is much the same.
Trevor will make his first playoff start as a Roughrider. He is (3-4) in the post-season while VA is 1-2 in the playoffs. This comes down to playing style and connection with primary players in the offence for me and while my head says play it safe and pick Harris as he will no doubt shred the Lions with trademark patience and control, the heart says Adams Jr. and the Lions based on two things.
The first is Vernon’s Western Semi performance last year against Calgary, it was as good a first half of CFL football you’ll ever see from a passer. The second is the inspired Lions performance in VA’s return to the lineup a few weeks ago vs. Montreal.
ADVANTAGE: BC
RUNNING BACKS
AJ Ouellette returned from injury in Week 19, rushing for 84 yards on 16 carries (Geoff Howe/CFL.ca)
If AJ Ouellette is up at full speed he’s impossible to deny in a four quarter showdown.
William Stanback has squeezed more than anyone could have imagined out of his body in 2024 after leaving Montreal but in a heavyweight tilt of ball carriers the nod goes to Ouellette.
ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan
RECEIVERS
Justin McInnis finished the regular season with the most receiving yards (1,469) in the CFL (BCLions.com)
Samuel Emilus has been sensational all year and Kian Schaffer-Baker continues to make timely plays but outside of the Canadians, depth of the Riders receivers has been tested through injury.
Outside of KeeSean Johnson there isn’t nearly as much meat on the bone as BC. That group is lead by Justin McInnis, who totalled 20 catches for 362 yards in the two regular season matchups.
ADVANTANGE: BC
OFFENSIVE LINE
How will the Riders offensive line fair against the BC Lions front seven? (Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca)
The Lions gave up a CFL-worst 43 sacks this season.
Despite sacks as a whole being down this year, that’s still too many to get a vote of confidence here. The question becomes who from the Roughriders will make them pay Saturday?
ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan
DEFENSIVE LINE
Sione Teuhema led the BC Lions with seven sacks in the regular season, one off the five league-leaders who had eight (Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca)
Three more sacks on the season gives BC a small lean here. In a matchup of two team strengths, the battle in the trenches will be entertaining as anything else happening in this game and deserves plenty of isolated cameras from our CFL on TSN crew.
ADVANTAGE: BC
LINEBACKERS
Jameer Thurman finished the regular season with 76 defensive tackles, three tackles for loss, one sack, two interceptions, three fumble recoveries, and a touchdown (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)
I’ve always liked the BC Linebackers, but Jameer Thurman is a pretty special player and surrounded by Guelph product A.J. Allen and potential All-CFL cover linebacker C.J. Reavis means Saskatchewan gets the hat tip here.
This will potentially be the most important group on the field when Vernon Adams Jr. breaks the pocket as he undoubtedly will early and often.
ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Rolan Milligan Jr. won three team awards including Most Outstanding Player, Most Outstanding Defensive Player, and Most Outstanding Special Teams Player (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)
Rolan Milligan Jr. is elite but Marcus Sayles isn’t far behind and top flight free safety play from a handful of Canadians means Saskatchewan have the advantage in what clearly would have been BC category to own last season in a similar matchup.
ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan
KICKERS
Will Sean Whyte continue his accurate kicking into the post-season? (Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca)
Sean Whyte against Brett Lauther is another all-time great matchup of veterans with ice in their veins. Just like the Eastern Semi-Final, it’s nearly impossible to decipher, but Whyte hitting at 12 per cent better over the season and leading the CFL at 94.3 per cent gives BC the advantage, even if it is outside BC Place.
ADVANTAGE: BC
RETURNERS
Mario Alford has scored one kickoff return touchdown in 2024, what does he have in store for the playoffs? (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)
Mario Alford is a BAD man in high pressure situations.
All respect to Terry Williams, who might have a higher average return in this one, but Alford housing one wouldn’t surprise anyone.
ADVANTAGE: Saskatchewan
SUMMARY
The season series was split between these two with BC winning 35-20 in Week 6 and the Riders answering 39-8 in Week 19.
I expect this to be a close one right down to the end and a critical decision by either Harris or Adams Jr. defining the game and who gets to go to Winnipeg next week.
Corey Mace is 0-0 as a head coach in playoff games, but he won the 2022 Grey Cup on this field as the Argonauts defensive coordinator. Can the good vibes carry over?
