Head-to-Head: Who has the edge in the 111th Grey Cup?

Finally, we have arrived.

The stage is set for weaving storylines, incredible performances and maybe just maybe one of the CFL’s true – and often unfairly disposed of – journeymen in Argonauts quarterback Nick Arbuckle getting to stand atop the CFL’s largest celebration.

Let’s dive in position by position to see who gets the edge in the 111th Grey Cup.

111th GREY CUP

QUARTERBACKS

With Chad Kelly going down due to injury the Argos faithful will be pushing as many positive vibes as humanly possible the direction of Nick Arbuckle all week. The obvious comparison to Ryan Dinwiddie’s Grey Cup spot start will wear out both men as the week goes on, but on Sunday afternoon the only thing that matters is how they come together formulating and executing a Grey Cup-worthy game plan.

Arbuckle is a true believer in Dinwiddie’s system, structure and mentality, to the point that Arbuckle told me earlier this season when interest was low in his passing potential, he contemplated entering coaching, maybe even in Toronto if a door opened!

On the other side of this Cinderella story is Zach Collaros, who Saturday against Saskatchewan looked as dialled in as ever. Quick feet, pocket poise, and deep ball accuracy have all been trademarks of Collaros’ now five-year stretch of making Grey Cups in Manitoba.

I’ll have more quarterback specific analysis on CFL.ca beginning Monday, but the Coles Notes here are while Arbuckle has the potential to have a really solid game, Collaros should have a great one.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

RUNNING BACKS

With Arbuckle controlling the offence, I expect Toronto to go more run-heavy in approach and mentality. Look no further than the Eastern Semi-Final – when the injury spotter removed Kelly for three plays after taking the brunt of a high speed collision, Toronto immediately went into run game mode despite not doing so all game.

Ka’Deem Carey will get his touches, and needs to be great if Toronto has a chance, but Brady Oliveira is just too much on any given week. I expect him to be named Most Outstanding Canadian at the CFL Awards. It would be the first time a running back accomplished the feat since Jon Cornish did so exactly a decade ago.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

RECEIVERS

I like Makai Polk, and Damonte Coxie has immediate impact written in a major game written all over him, but did you see Kenny Lawler in the Western Final?! Did you?! Because I did, and if he plays anything close to that, the Bombers are winning their third Grey Cup in five seasons.

The real difference here – all hyperbole aside – is Nic Demski getting up to speed at the perfect time. When Demski, and two to three other Winnipeg receivers, can get into that flow with their quarterback, the Bombers offence often looks untouchable. In support of Demski’s efforts and Lawler’s explosiveness, the Bombers need at least one of Ontaria Wilson, Keric Wheatfall and Kevens Clercius to make a handful of meaningful plays.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

OFFENSIVE LINE

At the start of the season, watching film of Winnipeg up front doesn’t look anything like the group we’ve come to expect in blue and gold. Fast forward to the Grey Cup, and they have continued to gel with every rep through the regular season grind.

Toronto have the top scoring regular season attack and more rushing yards per game this season. I have the utmost respect for their tackle play, and Ryan Hunter feels set to be an all-decade legend in double blue, but Stanley Bryant and the wall-to-wall chemistry of Winnipeg gets the nod.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

DEFENSIVE LINE

For anyone wondering if this entire piece was going to be Winnipeg-centric, I can already see the “why even play the game” and “I guess we have no chance then” comments.

There is a path to victory for Toronto, and it has to involve winning the defensive line matchup. Jake Ceresna has been special all year, and the plethora of bodies Toronto has rolled in have created fresh and productive pass rushers. Toronto is first in sacks created, while Winnipeg is last.

If the Argos want to win they NEED this group to be special and to get Collaros out of his rhythm. I think they can do it.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

LINEBACKERS

Wynton McManis is one of my favourite players in all of the CFL, but Redha Kramdi played the Western Final like someone stole his lunch money, and Tony Jones has been exceptional filling in for the injured Adam Bighill.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Tyrell Ford is a downhill, attacking ball hawk much the same way Royce Metchie is from two different locations in their respective defences, but the difference here for me is seeing Evan Holm time after time knock passes down. He often gets attacked, and almost always answers the bell with a marquee play.

If Toronto can get the pressure from their front mentioned above, the back end of the Argos could jump a couple errant throws from Collaros. Winning this positional group matchup would dramatically increase Toronto’s chances of winning, perhaps as much as any spot outside of quarterback.

ADVANTAGE: Winnipeg

KICKING

Sergio Castillo has a massive leg, and there’s no questioning his calm approach under pressure.

Lirim Hajrullahu for the Argos is just so steady, consistent, and I believe will be asked to do more with Winnipeg likely needing Castillo for extra points while Arbuckle and the Argos offence could rely on Lirim a few times early in the game for a field goal.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

PUNTING

With both teams tied in kickoff average, this is all about punting. John Haggerty ripped the laces off the ball all season (49.8 yards on average) while Jamieson Sheahan lagged behind (44.4 yards on average).

As always in the Grey Cup, field position looms large, and Haggerty has to play a large role in helping Toronto stay level, especially early.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

RETURNERS

Janarion Grant is ready for his Rocket Ismail moment in the Double Blue. Keep the beer cans off the field please, not if but when he goes streaking down the right sideline to cap what could be an Most Outstanding Special Teams award acceptance speech a few days earlier.

ADVANTAGE: Toronto

SUMMMARY

Many will read this and think Toronto has no chance to win the Grey Cup. Thankfully, positional group advantage does not equate to unquestionable victory.

With a couple big plays here and there, the Argos could pull this thing off. Just like in 2022, when it felt improbable going in, Ryan Dinwiddie doesn’t care about the narrative, and his club will take on that mentality all week.

Bombers bench boss Mike O’Shea has his guys right where he wants them ahead of the biggest game of the year.