Ferguson: Polar opposites at quarterback in 111th Grey Cup matchup

It’s the story of California vs. Ohio.

27 career touchdown passes vs. 199 career touchdown passes.

A conservative approach vs. vertical passing.

84 career games played vs. 148 career games played.

However you want to slice the quarterback matchup, Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros and Toronto’s Nick Arbuckle appear to be polar opposites. While some numbers will bear that out, the human side makes them more similar than you might expect heading into the 111th Grey Cup.

111th GREY CUP

Both are dedicated dads, an off-the-field fact that makes them two of the most likeable figures in the entire Canadian Football League. Both won a Grey Cup early in their careers as backups, with Collaros watching Ricky Ray lead the Argos to victory in 2012, while Arbuckle waited for his chance behind Bo Levi Mitchell in 2018.

Neither puts a foot wrong in front of a microphone as the franchise spokesperson at one of the game’s most important positions. Both have the potential to take over a game within them, despite each having their moments of regret on throws gone awry in various situations this season.

For Arbuckle and Collaros, this game will be painted as David vs. Goliath on the outside. Collaros is never one to worry about the other team’s offence, and Arbuckle will be focused on immaculate preparation, his journey taking him from Calgary to Ottawa, Toronto, Edmonton, back to Ottawa and then back to Toronto trying to find his forever home.

Statistically speaking, the seasonal disparities are obvious, but still staggering when you consider the moment these two are about to enter when they take the field at BC Place on Sunday.

This year alone, Arbuckle has 388 fewer pass attempts, 3,537 less passing yards, and 13 fewer touchdowns as a result of starting 17 fewer games – including the playoffs. I could throw a myriad of big numbers at you, and they would paint the picture suitably, but anyone interested enough to read this breakdown already knows that Chad Kelly’s injury has created a unique and tilted dynamic.

There is an obvious lean towards a formidable Collaros performance to solidify his legacy in Winnipeg, as if it wasn’t already set in stone.

So how are we to break down the quarterback matchup if numbers are of little use, and storylines are overwhelmingly one-sided? Look at the path to potential victory for the Argonauts, and I believe you’ll see how Arbuckle could flip the final script.

Collaros’ average depth of target this year ranked fifth most aggressive across the CFL (10.6) while Arbuckle’s trailed, but not by as much as you might think, sitting at 9.7. That number – like most – is deceiving and useless without context though. What inquiring minds really need to look at is how each passer gets to their overall depth of target.

They both attempt 61 per cent of their passes between the 0-9 yard depth, but the disparity of targets from 10-19 yards downfield and 20-plus yards downfield is what will craft the feel of the 111th Grey Cup. While Arbuckle throws 29 per cent of the time into intermediate depths, Collaros is less interested, throwing just 21.1 per cent.

The result is Arbuckle only putting 10 per cent of his pass attempts into the downfield category, while Collaros attempts the home run on 17.8 per cent of his throws.

What does it all mean? Likely that Collaros will take his shots early and often as we saw in the Western Final to Kenny Lawler, Nic Demski and anyone else interested in running underneath a perfectly placed pass and garnering Grey Cup glory.

Meanwhile, Arbuckle will lean on the running game, execute the offence at a high level, and try to pick apart the Bombers’ stellar defence with screens, sensible reads and the odd intermediate attempt between linebacker zones.

Just as Ottawa had against Toronto in the Eastern Semi-Final due to being forced to play a six-receiver set, the Kelly injury and Arbuckle’s entrance to the 111th Grey Cup now have put Toronto into a position with a significantly smaller margin for error. Arbuckle will need help from his defence, certainly from his special teams, as well a couple receivers to make plays outside the framework of the Argos’ drawn up offence in order to raise the trophy on Sunday in Vancouver.

Maybe the most important, Arbuckle has no choice but to avoid the untimely turnover that has often plagued his journey across the league. Giving the football away and gifting field position might nullify the entirety of this article, and Collaros and the Bombers will happily take advantage on short notice.