CFL: Head To Head: Who has the edge in the Eastern Semi-Final?
By Marshall Ferguson/CFL.ca
Up until about OK Tire Labour Day Weekend I was convinced Ottawa would be hosting the Eastern Semi-Final. The REDBLACKS were beating the odds with close wins, comebacks and a stunning string of home victories when considering their recent history at TD Place.
Well, the second half of the season was not kind, including a Week 20 loss in Toronto which solidified the REDBLACKS as road warriors in the 2024 CFL playoffs. None of that matters anymore, though. Trends, narratives and all the baggage of 18 games over 21 weeks has little impact of the craziness that a do-or-die, four-quarter playoff football game can supply and Ottawa has a chance to crash Toronto’s home playoff party this Saturday.
Toronto is hosting a playoff game for the fourth consecutive season, with the team last hosting the Eastern Semi-Final in 2012. Of note, the REDBLACKS and Argonauts have never met in the playoffs. Ottawa’s previous franchise and Toronto last faced off in the post-season in 1990 when legend Damon Allen was still part of Ottawa.
It should be a wild environment Saturday at BMO Field, here’s a positional breakdown to get you set.
QUARTERBACKS
If Dru Brown can take care of the ball against the Argos, the REDBLACKS have a chance at winning a tough road game (Andrew Lahodynskyj/CFL.ca)
After Chad Kelly’s nine-game suspension to begin the season, getting up to speed without a training camp and taking live reps against defenders who were already at that ‘in-season’ rhythm has understandably been an up and down adventure. The ups include making throws many others just can’t with his strong arm and at times getting into that familiar flow we saw in 2023 as he headed towards the Most Outstanding Player award. In the season series against Ottawa, Kelly totalled 794 passing yards, including a career-high 463 in Week 14, six touchdown passes, one rushing major and four interceptions.
The down moments for Kelly have included sporadic spurts of poor decision making, inaccuracy and sideline frustration, much of which was present in that wet weather game in Ottawa.
Dru Brown has ridden the wave of CFL season-long drama as well. Through injury and inconsistency he appears to have stabilized down the home stretch from a very rocky middle of the season, but as a first-year starter doubts will persist until disproven.
All of this is to say both quarterbacks have had their moments, but in playoff football I lean toward the stable, calm passer who will take the smart throw over the dangerous one as turnovers can hand a game over in quick order.
Against Toronto this year Dru Brown passed for 749 yards, including a 400-yard effort in Week 20, five touchdowns and one interception. It might be his first career playoff start but if Brown can keep a clean sheet he gets the advantage here over the CFL’s most risk/reward driven passer in Kelly.
ADVANTAGE: Ottawa
RUNNING BACKS
Ka’Deem Carey has been a foundational piece of the Argos’ offence this year (Andrew Lahodynskyj/CFL.ca)
Ka’Deem Carey got Toronto’s Most Outstanding Player nomination and rightfully so. I love what Ottawa has done in its backfield since saying goodbye to Ryquell Armstead but Carey is a seasoned veteran of playoff football thanks to his time in Calgary and will protect the football while running HARD, motivated by a chance to stabilize the Double Blue offence. The key here is Toronto not falling behind early so head coach Ryan Dinwiddie can continue to lean on Carey.
ADVANTAGE: Toronto
RECEIVERS
Makai Polk has emerged as a huge playmaking factor for the Argos’ offence this year (Andrew Lahodynskyj/CFL.ca)
Makai Polk registered 10 catches for 209 yards in the season series against Ottawa, and I always appreciate what DaVaris Daniels and Damonte Coxie bring to the table but I’ve openly been a fan of the way Ottawa’s receiver room has been constructed all season long.
Justin Hardy led the league in catches (97) and gets the bulk of the work but Dominique Rhymes went over 1,000 yards, Kalil Pimpleton has big game potential, Jaelon Acklin is always dangerous and Bralon Addison is the ultimate Swiss army knife.
ADVANTAGE: Ottawa
OFFENSIVE LINE
Dejon Allen and the Argos’ offensive line could be the biggest factor heading into Saturday’s game at BMO Field (Andrew Lahodynskyj/CFL.ca)
A dominant run game and giving up fewer sacks gives the Argonauts the advantage here. If the interior of the Argos’ line can work double teams early on against Ottawa’s defensive tackles and reach Jovan Santos-Knox at middle linebacker Toronto’s run game and this line could be THE story of the Eastern Semi-Final.
ADVANTAGE: Toronto
DEFENSIVE LINE
Jake Ceresna has helped lead a dominant Argos’ defensive line this year (Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca)
Leading the league in sacks, powered by balance of Folarin Orimolade outside and Jake Ceresna inside and fresh feet in Derek Parish and Robbie Smith, I love Toronto’s front. In a year when Michael Wakefield has taken advantage of all the attention Lorenzo Mauldin IV receives in Ottawa, I’m not sure Wakefield can do enough to offset the Argos’ unit as a whole.
ADVANTAGE: Toronto
LINEBACKERS
Wynton McManis is capable of a game changing play at any time and gives the Argos’ an edge at the linebacker spot (Andrew Lahodynskyj/CFL.ca)
Wynton McManis. That’s the entire conversation here. With all due respect to the other Toronto linebackers and Ottawa getting their middle man Jovan Santos-Knox back, I find it tough to pick against a player as skilled, smart and aggressive as McManis under any qualifications.
ADVANTAGE: Toronto
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Damon Webb had a pair of pick sixes in the REDBLACKS’ Week 14 win over the Argos (Andrew Lahodynskyj/CFL/.ca)
These two teams are stunningly similar in defensive back metrics. Both picked off opposing quarterbacks 14 times this season. Both had 49 knockdowns and both has some relatively inexperienced pass defenders, especially by playoff standards.
If I had to pick based on a single player jumping a route give me Damon Webb from the REDBLACKS, but DaShaun Amos and Tavarus McFadden are just as likely to make a sensational play for the Argos’ defence.
ADVANTAGE: Draw
KICKERS
Lewis Ward and Lirim Hajrullahu are both big game-ready and have produced on big stages before (James Paddle-Grant/CFL.ca)
Lewis Ward led the CFL in made field goals (53) while Lirim Hajrullahu had a season high eight in a single game, including several game winners. Hajrullauh is perfect inside 40-yards this season, where Ward has missed five kicks but Ward is 100 per cent (6-6) from 50-yards or longer.
No advantage here, just two special kickers at their best with a chance to make the difference for their clubs in a big playoff game.
ADVANTAGE: Draw
RETURNERS
Janarion Grant is a constant return TD threat and consistently gives the Argos strong field position (Bailey McLean/CFL.ca)
Janarion Grant is special. He’s cooled off a bit since his unreal mid-season stretch but you know the juices will be flowing as he waits for the Wilson to drop out of the sky into his waiting arms this week in front of a rowdy Argos crowd.
ADVANTAGE: Toronto
SUMMARY
In their 10-year existence, the REDBLACKS’ have not played a road playoff game. In a season that felt like a turning of the page, from a couple of thin years, why not set sail to a fresh future and catch Toronto looking ahead to an Eastern Final revenge game in Montreal for the Argos 2023 disaster?
If Toronto wins, it’s in the trenches by creating backfield havoc for Brown and running the football with determination. Of concern for Ottawa is penalties, including a CFL high 14 objectionable conducts heading into the final week of the regular season.
